The West viewed Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as another “incident,” like invading Georgia in 2008 and Chechnya in 1999 and 1994. To the Ukrainians, Russia was making a promise: We will reclaim.
Putin’s war has lost over 1,900 tanks, and nearly 200,000 troops, and currently relies on convicts to patch up massive holes in its infantry battalions. Corruption, incompetence, and miscalculation gutted the Russian military, incapacitating its war goals and allowing Ukraine to free itself and integrate with the West.
Last year, Ukrainian forces liberated almost the entirety of the Kharkiv Oblast and the north bank of the Dnipro River, including Kherson, controlling over half the land stolen during the early stages of the war.
The Ukrainian military extensively planned the offensive with American and British defense officials, helping them determine high-value targets, wargaming the Kherson offensive, and determining whether or not to attempt to retake the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
After a winter that was supposed to freeze Europe, Ukraine can deliver a knockout blow to Russia.
A recent report from D.C. think tank Institute for the Study of War stated Russia’s winter offensive could culminate without capturing Bakhmut, the linchpin for Ukraine to destroy Russian forces, leaving them susceptible to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
I am no flag-bearer of military spending. We pay our service members too little, and too much money returns to Washington. However, the United States must guarantee Ukrainian victory.
The counteroffensive will start during the summer and will be the beginning of the end. Ukraine will target the land bridge between Russia and Crimea, the only achieved Russian war goal, cutting the peninsula from supply lines and setting the conditions to free the entirety of Ukraine.
Ukraine needs tanks, planes, and, most importantly, artillery shells to go on the offensive. Ukraine estimated that it would need one million rounds this year. The EU is trying to meet demand, but the real problems come from the supply.
The United States plans to ramp up the production and delivery of 155 mm artillery shells to 90,000 per month within two years. Two years is too long, and Ukraine needs the rounds now to knock Russia out for good.
I am no flag-bearer of military spending. We pay our service members too little, and too much money returns to Washington. However, the United States must guarantee Ukrainian victory.
Built on years of supposed military victories, Putin cannot survive a defeat that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The Russian public has historically shown their distaste for their sons dying needlessly. Winning the war will set up the collapse of the Putin regime.
The United States and NATO must do whatever is necessary to enable the Ukrainians to win. We need more willingness to give and spend from the White House, the Pentagon, and Congress.
